China and the Global Recession – Part 1 – The Domestic Situation

The consensus of mainstream China analysts is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a unified entity that is destined to guide China into a new golden where it will enjoy global superpower status. This sanguine narrative maybe challenged as the current global economic recession has served to elucidate the genuine fragility of China’s political economy. Stability in the immediate future, let alone, decades from the present is not a fact to be taken for granted, but a likely possibility to be continuously observed and evaluated.

The Chinese leadership is less of a cohesive organism than a mixture of overlapping and competing regional, ideological, and institutional interests. This leaves China vulnerable to conflict. The glue that binds the various CCP factions and the monied elites is a vast patronage system made possible by 20 years of unprecedented economic growth, no Maoism or a constitutional “balance of powers”. The Chinese elite are conscious of this. Even President Hu Jintao recognized the importance of various factions to maintaining national stability by designating two possible successors from divergent ideological perspectives, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The CCP has also been touting the phrase “zhengdi tuandui” (team of rivals) in the media, in reference to political cooperation, which seem to be part of President Hu’s larger goal of creating a “Harmonious Society”. China’s ability to realize this harmony is heavily dependent on the financial liquidity that feeds its “Leviathan”.

Most sources will site China as the third largest economy in the world, just behind Japan; however, according to the World Bank and IMF (2007 figures), China has the world’s second largest economy, if Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The PRC (People’s Republic of China) has $1.9 trillion USD in foreign exchange reserves, which provides it with a measure of security against the current global recession.

Unlike the world’s two largest economies, America and Japan, China will likely avoid a domestic recession, but it has not escaped unscathed. From October to December last year, a collapse in exports only exacerbated the slowdown in China’s growth already occurring since January 2008. The latter was actually purposely created by the implementation of domestic banking policies intended to fight inflation. By the 4th quarter of 2008 growth had slowed to a meager 6.8 percent, and the Chinese stock market had also lost 65 percent of its value (roughly $3 trillion USD).

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, recently made the optimistic prediction, that despite the economic downturn, China will see an 8 percent economic growth rate in 2009. Even an 8 percent growth rate would still fall under the decade average of 11 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), being less assured, projected China’s 2009 growth at just 6.7 percent. It should be remembered that Chinese figures should always be viewed with healthy skepticism due to weaknesses in data collection and ambitious local officials seeking to aggrandize themselves before their superiors. Counterintuitively, some analyst actually believes, overall, China routinely understates growth to avoid the appearance of an economic bubble.

It is likely that the source of Wen’s confidence is the Chinese government’s proposed stimulus plan and the current state of the banking system. Chinese banks have limited international exposure; being less integrated, they were not as affected by the financial crisis. The PRC’s $584 billion USD (~4 trillion Yuan) stimulus package is roughly 6% of its total GDP. The package will focus on training migrant workers, R&D and improving infrastructure. There is also a special emphasis placed on improving domestic companies’ international competitiveness by streamlining the approval process for these companies to make foreign acquisitions, especially in automotives; textiles; energy; electronics and machinery sectors.

China’s banks are funding this corporate expansion by lending at a higher rate than at any time within the last year. It is expected that Chinese corporate investment of $16.3 billion last year could double this year. Globally the value of mergers and acquisitions has dropped by over 35%. Chinese companies have particularly focused on buying up billions of dollars in strategic natural resource assets in Iran, Brazil, Venezuela, and France. The Chinese government has used loans in Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela to ensure state owned energy companies secure deals. For example, China will supply up to $25 billion in loans to Russia in exchange for long term deals for the China National Petroleum Corporation. This will likely spur further concerns over future availability and price of these resources in nations that are in competition for them.

This is a sea-change in activity considering the attitude of the CCP in 2007. In that year, the CCP established credit quotas that domestic banks were subject to and they were continually adjusted upwards by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, as inflation became a significant concern. Exports grew only 9.4 percent for 2008 a downward trend from the decade’s average of 20 per cent. Export growth in January 2009 was -17.5 percent, industrial production also dropped. After the conditions of the last two years, the state-owned banks (SOBs) are quite willing to follow the stimulus mandate to increase lending and they also cannot now be held responsible for future nonperforming loans. Much of the stimulus money will be cycled through the banks and loaned to State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and local governments. The CCP Standing Committee, partially in response to current and anticipated public pressure, have already made vague comments about the need for more transparency in how the stimulus package is spent, to head off corruption that could lead to public outrage.

China’s financial liquidity is largely a result of its people’s exceptionally high savings rate; China’s households save nearly 25% of their disposable, although they get low or even negative rates of return from the banks and financial markets. The recent decrease in exports has inversely effected employment, making the situation of the most vulnerable citizens precarious. The Asian Development Bank has found that China has one of Asia’s highest income inequality rates. In 2004, the combined income of the richest 20 percent being 11.4 times the aggregate income of the poorest 20 percent. These numbers have gotten progressively worse every year since. China has been trying to grow its domestic market, but consumption was low before the global recession and savings high due to the lack of social safety nets. There are three year plan to provide universal health care and education. Currently, Chinese consumer spending accounts for only 35 percent of China’s GDP, whereas in America it is two-thirds.

By February of 2009, there were 20 million unemployed migrant workers, which was double the estimate of December 2008; and an additional 6 to 7 million low skilled rural residents are expected to join the migrant workforce, as many multinationals are cutting back or shutting down factories. For the employed, raises in salary have fallen for the first time in 4 years. The only upshot is that wage deflation somewhat halts China’s recent loss in price competitiveness regional revivals, such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Cambodia.

There has been much talk in the Western media over the last year concerning Chinese government crackdowns on ethnic minorities in the provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet, but this behavior is not isolated to minorities on the periphery of China Proper; to the contrary, the majority of these actions seems to be in response to the uptick in “mass incidents” in Han majority areas.

The Chinese government has hired more than 40,000 state employees to police the 250 million Chinese that are on the internet in an effort known as the “Golden Shield Project”. Thousands of websites have been banned or censored and even text messages have been filtered. Many analysts supposed the increase in arrest and crackdowns were temporary, due to sensitivity around the Olympics Games, but this has proven incorrect. The crackdowns are directed at any criticism of the government that could cause poplar discontent, such as the “Tainted Milk Scandal” and last springs’ Sichuan Earthquakes, as well as any talk of democracy, Taiwan, Tibet, and other such contentious issues. It maybe that this is a two pronged approach, as Premier Wen, in early March, made his first internet address to the online Chinese community to encourage controlled discussion as an alternative to citizens possibly taking to the streets of China’s major cities.

The Chinese government has not published official figures on “mass incidents”, a CCP term for riots; demonstrations; and protests since 2004. In that year 74,000 incidents were recorded, a 28% change over the previous year. Foreign analysts, drawing on Chinese sources, estimated the 2005 figure to have been 80,000-85,000. Considering the trend line, starting from 1993, there is no reason to think the number of incidents has not increased at the historic average of 20% a year. The weak performance of the PAP in the pre-Olympic riots in Tibet, which resulted in the PAP forces reportedly losing control of the situation and forcing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to become involved, surely caused alarm inside the CCP and the military. In January 2009, President Hu gave an ominous warning that the People’s Armed Police (PAP), that they will face difficult challenges ahead.

There has also been an increase in the number of “black houses,” unofficial jails for citizens that exercise their right to petition the national government in Beijing, a last desperate attempt to addresses grievances with provincial officials peacefully. The Chinese government denies the existence of these jails, but citizens are being abducted off the street, usually at the behest of local party cadre, in or in route to Beijing, to prevent them from filing embarrassing appeals. The state media has reported that 10 million such petitions have been filed in the last five years on complaints as diverse as unjust taxation, illegal land seizures and unpaid wages.

The fundamentals of the Chinese economy may be strong, but they are not “harmonious”. The history of China is instructive; in that, most revolutions in China have come from rural areas in bad economic times when the central government is seen as impotent, having lost the “Mandate of Heaven”. This “right of rebellion” against an unjust or ineffective rule has been a part of Chinese political philosophy since the Zhou Dynasty (1045 BC to 256 BC). The CCP is acutely aware of this history; its own origins lie in a rural populist movement led by a charismatic leader against a corrupt and incompetent regime. The CCP has also been a diligent study of how perestroika and glasnost led to the fall of the Soviet Communist Party.

The current global economic crisis has revealed significant cracks in China’s political and economic system. Harmony will be heavily dependent on the length of the global downturn and how adaptive and not reactive the CCP is to changing circumstances. It will also be contingent upon if the CCP earnestly intends to make substantive movements toward greater freedom of speech, tort reform, restraining graft and banking reform. If recent overture from the party elites are just a guise designed to ride out any potential threats to party power by strengthening security forces and drawing out potential enemies, this could be catastrophic, especially if the party’s patronage system’s life-blood does indeed dry up, corruption could increase in tandem with poverty. These twin forces would disproportionately strike rural areas, where most Chinese still live. In this situation the CCP’s “Great Wall” against the people will be the security forces. Due to the fractious nature of Chinese politics, it is quite possible that some members of the elite, especially of the tuanpai (populist faction) or even the military, could exploit this situation to their own political advantage. They could use populist appeals targeted to the urban poor and rural peasants to weaken their rivals. Hopefully the global economic downturn will be short lived or those who keep predicting China’s inevitable success will have to hedge their bets on the CCP reforming itself in a crisis. Historically, power does not willingly concede when under threat.

By Collin Spears, Chief Foreign Policy Correspondent,
Washington D.C. Bureau

10 Crucial Steps Out of Crisis

A crisis is defined as a time of intense difficulty or danger. In the case of diseases, it is the turning point of a disease, when it becomes clear whether the patient will recover or not. It is evident in the definition that a crisis is not a desirable state. One would choose not to have to solve a crisis and a live a crisis-free life but that is not possible. Daily you meet crisis of varying shapes, forms and proportions. Some are individual (affecting you personally) and some are of a national or global coverage such as the ongoing fight with the AIDS epidemic. The goal is to find the quickest and most effective method of bringing the state of affairs back to normal. This alone explains the efforts from every sector of the world, be it donor community, research scientists, governments and corporate to bring a lasting solution to this one type of crisis. Your crisis may not be as prevalent as the epidemic but the fact remains that it is state you would desire to move out of. I have faced crisis after crisis in my life but I have emerged out of every crisis sharper, wiser and more experienced. Some of the crisis I faced taught me endurance, persistence, optimism and courage. While crisis situations have a lot of life lessons, one would not desire to first see a crisis then learn but learn anyhow from other people’s crisis. How does one get out of crisis? I answer the question from what I have learned under crisis below.

The Steps

1. Acknowledge that you have reached crisis point – It is not a sign of failure to acknowledge the state of affairs as it is. After all there is no situation that cannot be turned around either deliberately or by way of miracles. Simply declare that this is crisis level. Failure to acknowledge may derail the exit into normal mode as everyone feels it is business as usual. Make every citizen or employee know the nature of the crisis and how it affects them. Alcoholics that refused to say the statement “I am an alcoholic” fail to move out of alcoholism. Non admittance is living in denial of the facts even though they are as clear as noonday. Your affirmation will then change at a later stage as your affirm the new you. Acknowledgment is for the purpose of finding the help you require.

2. Establish the nature and category of crisis – Who is affected by the crisis? What is the general extent of the crisis? Is it affecting just the households next to you or it has become an epidemic of high proportions. The extent and nature of the crisis determines the response strategy. Life threatening crisis requires faster movement; move by instinct and save the life under threat. By establishing the extent of the crisis you are able to determine the level of reporting back and human resource mobilization to help ease or end the crisis. Every crisis is unique, every problem is different. You will not prescribe the same medication on a persistent migraine as you would on a minor headache.

3. Identify the root causes of the crisis – To know the cause of a disease is certainly half the cure. It does not benefit you to fight flames in a fire as opposed to closing the container that is fueling the fire. Similarly in crisis setups, problems and conflict and anxiety may all be flames. You need to know why the organization or country is where it is. Be frank with the reasons why. If you shy away from the actual reasons it maybe a total waste of valuable time. Put all the cards on the table, undress the crisis breaking it into the individual components that originated and grew the crisis. You will realize that the power of a fire is not high up on the flames but way low at the bottom where it is coming from.

4. Stop Creating Comfort in the Crisis – It is easy to acknowledge you are in a crisis and immediately find coping mechanisms in the crisis. By so doing you make everyone feel as if there is no crisis. It is the same as knowing that a person has a serious cut on the leg and is in excruciating pain then you give them the highest dosage of pain stopper. You may stop the pain momentarily but that does not disqualify the cut. Simply put; you have created temporary comfort in the crisis but you still have to face the real crisis you are hiding under the carpet.

5. Get Ideas from your team – As a leader you may not be the only one to prescribe the way out of the crisis.
You may not be the cause of the crisis after all. Your role is to get everyone to see the same thing and talk the same language. Bring people to a place of unity so that they actually take ownership of their situation. As long as you give yourself the burden of getting everyone out of the crisis, you may easily fight a losing battle as people may delay your exit strategy. Some may be benefitting from the crisis hence they stifle your efforts. A brilliant idea maybe hidden in the most unlikely team member, much lower on the structures of power.

6. Plan your exit from crisis – As discussed above, sometimes the crisis situation maybe a matter of life and death with the going of every minute threatening the life of people, in such a scenario there is no room for board meeting, or consensus. Movement is by instinct not according to an activity planner. Careful planning of the precepts and phases of the exit from crisis is important. Document every step, on each step you need to identify who is responsible and give the person a clear mandate of why their role is important. Get strategic thinkers to test your plan and identify loopholes. A plan is as strong as its weakest point. Test before you plunge or else you waste more time and money. Some solutions make increase the extent of the problem.

7. Get expert advice and help – If you do not have the skills necessary in your team or country, look beyond
your area. Call for specific people with specific competencies to come in. Calling in technocrats with the right experience in dealing with the issues will sometimes cost you less in terms of loss or damage than creating make-shift solutions which in actual fact have expiry dates. You may not have the liberty to experiment or try out amateur level solutions. Specialists are there to provide specialist services. Some of them have studied on the very subject to the highest level of study possible.

8. Revisit your financial priorities – Your crisis may not be related to finance but every crisis has an impact on your finances. You have to prioritize your expenditure in the direction of bring a normal environment back. All payments in line with bringing order and effectiveness are a priority. You may need to make sacrifices that affect a greater majority. This is the reason why everyone must be engaged to take ownership of the problem. As long as it remains the role of leaders to create a miracle out of a solution, followers will always want their luxuries as they may not share or buy-in to what leaders are doing even though it benefits them.

9. Execute your plan – Implementation – Most solutions look workable on paper. They sound good and practical until the real implementation is due. You may have run a pilot of the solution, you may have people’s buy-in and all the necessary plans in writing but if you do not carefully implement all you have purposed, the solution becomes a “nice to have”. Get everyone to account for whatever role they were given. Call for regular meetings to review progress, budgets, human resource gaps etc. Without a follow through, the crisis will rage on.

10. Communicate & Review Progress – You can never be accused of over communication. If anything sometime we put a lot of effort in creating solutions, we implement the solutions and forget to communicate the success stories and even areas where we are failing. Without adequate communication and review of progress, people will easily be discouraged thinking that they are not making any headway in redressing the crisis. Reviews and updates will keep everyone motivated and inspired. In the whole process you need to document everything for others to use the same notes as reference points in the future.

Natural Resources Endure Shorter Recessionary Bust

Resource investors were not immune to the pain of the latest recession, but, for them, it was more like tearing off a Band-Aid than slowly peeling one away.

The S&P Global 1200, a stock index providing a reliable measure of worldwide equity markets, peaked on Oct. 31, 2007. We all know what happened next: financial crisis, fear and economic decline. The bottom for global equities, or at least what we hope was the bottom, arrived some 16 months later. Natural resources stocks took a similar plunge, but more rapidly. The S&P Global Natural Resources Index, comprising 60 of the largest energy, metals and agricultural product companies around the world, peaked on May 19, 2008, and hit bottom (we hope) on Nov. 20, 2008, a mere six months after the slide began.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is generally regarded as an authority on U.S. recessions, says the United States entered recession in December 2007. Stock markets around the world gradually began to reflect this through lower prices, although recession wasn’t a foregone conclusion at the time. Even the NBER only makes an official announcement about the beginning of a recession long after it is under way.

Against this recessionary backdrop, resource stocks continued to climb well into 2008. Conventional wisdom tells us an approaching recession should have brought the opposite result. Resources stocks are cyclical, and economic weakness would ordinarily be a grave threat.

However, the effect was delayed for resources stocks because crude oil prices steadily rose throughout 2007 and the first half of 2008. Oil and gas prices heavily impact most natural resources stock funds (and indices) because the energy sector typically accounts for about two-thirds of these funds and benchmarks.

The reasons for oil’s price spike in 2008 were heavily debated, probably because of the anger it generated – recall your frustration at the pump as gasoline approached $5 per gallon. Some believed the prices resulted from high demand or expected future demand from the fast-growing Chinese and Indian economies. Others pointed to supply disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq or speculative investment in oil futures. The Organziation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was blamed for restraining its production levels in an effort to keep prices high and maintain profit margins trimmed by a declining U.S. dollar.

In reality, oil prices were probably high because of some combination of these factors and a growing consensus that long-term demand growth was going to outpace capacity. Whatever theory you accept, the fact is that oil prices were elevated, propping up resources stocks long after recession expectations had taken hold.

Crude oil peaked at more than $147 per barrel during trading on July 11, 2008, before plunging to under $31 on Dec. 22, 2008. Natural gas peaked at around the same time and suffered a decline almost as spectacular. Not surprisingly, natural resources stock portfolios heavily invested in companies locating, extracting and producing these resources went for a ride as well. The S&P Global Natural Resources Index lost 57 percent, peak to trough, over a stretch lasting 185 days.

By comparison, the S&P Global 1200 shed 59.2 percent, peak to trough. It took 495 days.

From December 2007 through the first quarter of 2010, a period covering the entire recession and part of the subsequent recovery, resources stocks actually performed better than global equities, as measured by the S&P indices. Excluding dividends, global equities declined 25.1 percent, while resources declined 20.7 percent. Part of the disparity may result from differences in the sizes of the companies in the two indices. The Global Natural Resources Index contains larger companies than the Global 1200 index, and thus may be less volatile. The strong showing for resources was nonetheless surprising, and occurred despite a complete lack of price recovery in natural gas, where innovation in drilling techniques over the last decade has expanded potential supply and alleviated long-term scarcity concerns.

Cyclical stocks such as resources generally exaggerate the market’s movements, but this was not true of resources stocks during the recession. Resources stocks lived up to their reputation of fierce swings, but did not surpass the losses experienced by global equities. Further, when pessimism and panic finally gave way to rationality, and the world’s major stock markets slowly rebounded, resources began their ascent several months before global equities did.

What kept resources from experiencing a longer and deeper bust?

While large swaths of the Western world were dealing with negative gross domestic product, some resource-hungry developing nations were still growing – and quickly.

China, second in energy consumption only to the United States, managed more than 9 percent GDP growth in 2008 and close to 9.5 percent in 2009. Even in the depths of the recession in the early quarters of 2009, China’s economy was growing at a rate greater than 6 percent.

Within weeks of the resources bottom, China unveiled a $586 billion economic stimulus program ramping up spending on housing, infrastructure, agriculture, health care and social welfare. It was designed to prop up demand and keep China’s economy growing at a high single-digit rate.

The program was good news for resources. Fast-growing economies burn through significantly more resources; they need materials to build factories and energy to power machines. The government was routing yuan directly to housing and infrastructure, two of the most resource-intensive sectors. The spending also supplied the expanding middle class with better jobs and increased payments from social safety nets. This meant more citizens with the ability to afford housing, or to move to better housing, and more materials and energy required in the future to build homes and keep the lights on.

The Chinese economy wasn’t alone in maintaining robust growth during the global recession. India’s economy grew at 7.4 percent in 2008 and 6.1 percent in 2009. Back-to-back fiscal stimulus packages in December 2008 and January 2009, aimed at dampening the effect of the global slowdown, boosted infrastructure and real estate spending.

Inflation expectations were also in natural resources’ corner. The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 authorized the U.S. Treasury to spend up to $700 billion to help ailing financial institutions. Governments across Europe followed suit with similar but smaller pledges to support their banking systems. The next year, the United States was back on its spending spree, with a $787 billion fiscal stimulus to kick-start the slowing economy. Fears of surging government debt in the United States and Europe led investors to seek hard assets to protect their purchasing power. Gold prices actually increased in 2008, a year in which double-digit commodity price declines were standard, and many price declines approached or exceeded 50 percent.

As precipitous as the decline was for resources stocks during the recession, it could have been worse. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, a 30-stock sample from economically sensitive industries such as automobiles, chemicals and machinery, declined roughly 74 percent between its peak and trough closing prices.

Factors such as continued economic growth in developing Asia, stimulus plans geared toward “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects, and inflation expectations likely offset the cyclicality of resources stocks during the recession. The biggest difference between the performance of natural resources stocks and the stock market as a whole was not really overall performance, but the timing and length of decline. The fall of resources stocks was more compressed and more dramatic. It wasn’t as drawn-out, but that didn’t make it any less painful for investors.

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